Predicting the incidence of brucellosis in Western Iran using Markov switching model

نویسندگان

چکیده

Abstract Objective Brucellosis is a zoonosis almost chronic disease. bacteria can remain in the environment for long time. Thus, climate irregularities could pave way survival of bacterium brucellosis. more common men 25 to 29 years age, western provinces, and spring months. The aim this study investigate effect climatic factors as well predicting incidence brucellosis Qazvin province using Markov switching model (MSM). This secondary data collected from 2010 2019 province. include cases parameters. Two state MSM with time lags 0, 1 2 was fitted data. Bayesian information criterion (BIC) used evaluate models. Results According BIC, two-state 1-month lag suitable model. month, average-wind-speed, minimum-temperature have positive on number brucellosis, age rainfall negative effect. results show that probability an outbreak third month 0.30%.

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ژورنال

عنوان ژورنال: BMC Research Notes

سال: 2021

ISSN: ['1756-0500']

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1186/s13104-020-05415-5